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Did Obama need the youth vote to win?
There has been much said about the power of Obama's network in this election. In fact, many of his voters were of the 18-24 demographic. But new numbers are showing that young voters only increased by about 1% in this election over 2004 (from 17 to 18%). Similarly, according to MSNBC's latest analysis, Barack Obama won "without generating a significantly higher percentage of black voter...".
This being said, the numbers do mask that nearly a quarter of Obama's voters were under 30, about twice that of McCain's share. 1% also equals about 2.2 million new young voters, which is nothing to brush aside.
The same holds true for African American turnout. A "slight uptick" in the African American vote translates into about 2 million more voters. Again this is the result of massive GOTV efforts before both the primaries and general election.
Taken together, did Obama need</> the youth vote to win? The truth is that no one group carried the day, but instead it was the culmination of winning the youth vote, along with both the African American and Hispanic votes by wide margins while the white vote dropped to 74% from a high of 81% of all voters in 2000. (McCain won white voters by 55%.)
These groups increased Obama's win margin significantly, which in turn provides the new President-elect with what some are calling a "mandate for change" that will empower his office with the momentum it needs to achieve some of his campaign promises about cutting (and raising taxes) on various income levels, address health care, and shifting our strategy in the war on terror.
The Democrats will also be looking to solidify support among these growing voter blocs, which means "the youth vote", which have just about http://www.huffingtonpost.com/arianna-huffington/tuesdays-second-bi...">eclipsed (scroll down) Baby Boomers in numbers, will also be courted to become a "permanent" part of the Dems electorate.
How can the Dems capture the youth vote permanently? The same way the GOP can, by addressing the needs of the electorate: education, the environment, war, and creating opportunity.
Like we've seen with voting groups such as union members, Right to Life voters and others, one party can dominate a bloc of the voting electorate for decades, but like anything else, it comes down to addressing those issues each groups overwhelmingly care about. Time will tell if our new President can deliver.
This being said, the numbers do mask that nearly a quarter of Obama's voters were under 30, about twice that of McCain's share. 1% also equals about 2.2 million new young voters, which is nothing to brush aside.
The same holds true for African American turnout. A "slight uptick" in the African American vote translates into about 2 million more voters. Again this is the result of massive GOTV efforts before both the primaries and general election.
Taken together, did Obama need</> the youth vote to win? The truth is that no one group carried the day, but instead it was the culmination of winning the youth vote, along with both the African American and Hispanic votes by wide margins while the white vote dropped to 74% from a high of 81% of all voters in 2000. (McCain won white voters by 55%.)
These groups increased Obama's win margin significantly, which in turn provides the new President-elect with what some are calling a "mandate for change" that will empower his office with the momentum it needs to achieve some of his campaign promises about cutting (and raising taxes) on various income levels, address health care, and shifting our strategy in the war on terror.
The Democrats will also be looking to solidify support among these growing voter blocs, which means "the youth vote", which have just about http://www.huffingtonpost.com/arianna-huffington/tuesdays-second-bi...">eclipsed (scroll down) Baby Boomers in numbers, will also be courted to become a "permanent" part of the Dems electorate.
How can the Dems capture the youth vote permanently? The same way the GOP can, by addressing the needs of the electorate: education, the environment, war, and creating opportunity.
Like we've seen with voting groups such as union members, Right to Life voters and others, one party can dominate a bloc of the voting electorate for decades, but like anything else, it comes down to addressing those issues each groups overwhelmingly care about. Time will tell if our new President can deliver.
Replies to This Discussion
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Permalink Reply by Marco on -
Just reading the new numbers from CIRCLE, which cites their internal stats showing 3.4 million more young people voted in 2008 vs 2004, a number almost double that which I cited above.
All the more reason to celebrate.
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